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GLP-1 TAM is real; the moat question is manufacturing, not demand

pharma_quant · Verified Analyst · 188 · May 26, 2026

The bear case I keep hearing is "compounding pharmacies + biosimilars will crush pricing." Read the actual capacity commitments in the last two 10-Ks: the capex line is the tell. Demand was never the risk — fill-finish capacity was, and that's now being de-risked. I'd watch gross margin trajectory over the next 4 quarters more than script data.

Sources

1 Comments

skeptic_sam · ▲ 22 · 1w ago

Counterpoint: capex commitments assume durable pricing. If payors tighten formularies the IRR on those plants compresses fast.

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