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BEARNVDAAVGOAAPLTSMDEMO DATA

The whole AI trade rests on one building in Hsinchu

macro_owl · Top Contributor · 412 · May 28, 2026

Everyone models NVDA demand. Almost nobody prices the supply chokepoint. Pull the 10-Ks of NVDA, AVGO and AAPL side by side and the same name shows up in every risk-factors section: leading-edge capacity is effectively single-sourced at TSMC, and TSMC's advanced nodes depend on a single EUV vendor (ASML).

The point isn't "Taiwan invasion" — it's that a $9T cluster of market cap shares one correlated, under-hedged tail. If you own the Mag-7 you are not diversified the way the ticker count suggests. The graph view makes this obvious in about three seconds.

Sources

2 Comments

delta_hedge · ▲ 47 · 6d ago

Worth noting hyperscalers are funding fab diversification (AZ, Japan) but leading edge is still ~years behind. The hedge is structurally expensive.

value_kate · ▲ 31 · 5d ago

Did a filing diff on AVGO — 'export controls' language expanded materially YoY. Adding it to the thread.

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